The following is excerpted from the executive summary of a publication called Maryland's Changing Land: Past, Present and Future prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning (December 2001). The entire report contains land use trends and projections for the state as well as for individual counties. It is available by from:

Maryland Department of Planning
301 West Preston Street
Baltimore MD 21201-2365
Phone 410-767-4550
http://www.mdp.state.md.us

Maryland's Changing Land: Past, Present and Future -
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Maryland's population and developed acres grew significantly between 1973 and 1997. Maryland population grew by 983,125 people, representing a 30% increase. An estimated 376,500 acres of forest and agricultural land have been converted to more intensely developed land uses (e.g. residential, industrial, or commercial) to accommodate changes in population and employment. It is expected that another 893,600 people will be living in Maryland by 2020. If we continue to develop according to existing (1997) county zoning, subdivision, resource protection and other development/environmental policies and programs, we will lose 301,302 acres of resource land. This is equivalent to an area six times the size of Baltimore City.

Overall Maryland's developed land increased from 769,643 acres in 1973 to 1,145,916 acres in 1997, representing a 49% increase. Forty-two percent of the new development (159,377 acres) occurred between 1985 and 1990, which was a period of rapid land consumption. The average annual rate of development between 1985 and 1990 was 31,839 acres, triple the rate of the early 1980's (8,173 acres/year) and the 1970's (10,238 acres/year). The average annual rate of development dropped in the 1990's to 14,639 acres per year, reflecting a decrease in the number of new households created. It is projected that the average annual rate of conversion of resource land to development will be 13,845 acres per year in 2020 assuming that current (1997) policies, programs and practices continue. The implementation of Smart Growth initiatives and practices are expected to reduce the rate of resource land conversion.

The percent of residential development constructed on large lots (.5 acre lots or larger) has been increasing over the past 30 years and is projected to continue. This decentralized growth pattern has resulted in forest and agricultural land being consumed for new homes and roads at an unprecedented rate. The percent of residential land developed in a low density development pattern has increased from 47% (241,061 acres) in 1973 to 58% (489,540 acres) by 1997 and is projected to reach 62% (719,475 acres) by 2020. The conversion of resource land to low density residential development results in the loss and fragmentation of resource land as well as an increase in the amount of impervious cover.

The land use projections presented in this report indicate that if the current pattern (1997) of development continues, Maryland will continue to lose resource land. The conversion of resource land to low density development had an immediate and profound impact on the environment, the economy, and our communities.

• The costs to serve low density residential development are significantly higher than to serve high density residential development per unit;
  
• Low density residential development increases vehicle miles traveled, congestion, air pollution, and the demand for new roads. Public transit is a not a viable option in areas with a dispersed development pattern;
  
• Low density residential development increases the demand for new infrastructure (sewer, water, roads, schools, emergency services) resulting in taxpayer and governments paying more for support of development;
  
• Low density development results in the loss and fragmentation of forest land which decreases ecological diversity, economic benefits, and recreational value;
  
• Low density development converts more agricultural land and threatens traditional use of the land than compact development;
  
• As resource lands (pervious cover) is converted to new development the level of impervious cover increases resulting in a decrease in water quality and biodiversity;
  
• The migration of people from our older suburban and urban areas results in community abandonment, environmental degradation and wasted public investment.